Unless you are a billionaire, don’t panic
Brace yourself: in just 18 months, artificial super-intelligence is highly likely to become a reality.
Since their public release in late 2022, Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT demonstrated remarkable advances. Elon Musk and other industry leaders now estimate that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is no more than two years away. Soon, AI models will be indistinguishable from humans. A year later, we are almost certain to enter the realm of superintelligence.
Scores of companies, including Tesla, and Boston Dynamics, are investing heavily in robotic androids. The technology is beyond the testing stage and well into preparing for assembly line production, marketing, and pricing. Expect the first androids to hit our stores en masse by 2025 or 2026. The combination of robotics with advanced LLMs means super-intelligence becomes embodied.
And according to futurologist Tony Seba, we are less than 15 years away from ubiquitous general-purpose androids becoming as common as smartphones.
Super-Intelligence: Messiah or Judas
The productivity gains from cheap robots working around the clock ushers in an age of superabundance.
Robots will handle menial tasks and humans are then free to focus on creativity, innovation, and existential exploration. Work as we understand it is optional or a relic of the past. On the downside, in economic terms, humans are redundant. Transformative potential of superintelligence is a compelling vision offering unique opportunities and threats. In the interim, we are stuck navigating critically dangerous waters. Meaning we are already in a high-tech complexity tangle even without AI.
Alvin Toffler’s “Future Shock”—a book written over 50 years ago, suggested we might struggle to cope with the pace of technological change. The increasing occurrences of stress, depression, and anxiety suggest that our ability to cope may not be as satisfactory as we desire.
And that is without contemplating the threat of nuclear war, climate change, and a global financial debt system that is locked into teetering from one crisis to the next.
Ukraine – The end of War
Over in the Ukraine, during the last two and half years, the front lines have served as a testing ground for all sides to trial and fine-tune ground tactics with an array of weapons systems.
Discrete ground battles on urban targets and fortified defences now involve thousands of drones, some with AI ability, others with predefined targets, and others operated remotely. There are robotic dogs leading attacks and clearing operations. Increasingly, human soldiers are becoming redundant cannon fodder.
The decisive element of war is the quality and quantity of your AI weapons.
Hegemony – All in
Public support for Ukraine in its war against Russia is fading.
Early promises of swift victory by Western leaders have proven misguided. The sanctions designed to hurt and isolate Russia have not worked. The Russian economy is growing and the inflationary impact of the sanctions on the average western citizen is causing political mayhem throughout much of the western world.
But western leaders in Washington and Brussels, together with western media, are not listening. They double down on escalations and double down on the threats with promises of sending more funds and longer range more weapons systems.
And if that weren’t enough, there is a growing enthusiasm to open a new hot and cold war with China.
Super-Intelligence to save us from ourselves
In the face of these challenges, our democracies and our leaders appear dysfunctional, unable to face or understand the stakes.
The geopolitical scene is marred by escalating tensions between the West, Russia, and China. Despite the threats that AGI and super-intelligence pose – they may be our last hope to save ourselves from ourselves.There are many brilliant, and ethical individuals, only we’ve created a system that excludes them. Powerful interests have captured our institutions for their own ends.
Significant barriers limit the accessibility of leaders not endorsed by the prevailing self-interests.
Dystopian Chimera
We’ve all heard the fear narrative that Super AI may see humanity as an enemy and unite against us—it’s another Terminator script.
Another popular fear narrative is an authoritarian dystopia with a credit system punishing everything from social media posts to traffic violations.Neither scenario displays much superintelligence. It’s more likely that a superintelligence would prioritize identifying high-impact corrosive practices instead of tormenting the powerless for insignificant infractions.
If we assume that a superintelligence aligns with the principles of the U.S. Constitution and the United Nations, such an AI would likely focus on exposing the shenanigans of the ultra-wealthy and powerful.
Lost town square
The only town square of relevance today is online.
Unfortunately, the elite ruling class suffered an existential shock from Trump’s win in 2016 and the Brexit vote. The overreaction has been a punitive censorship of social and legacy media, turning them into unapologetic propaganda megaphones of public policy. The cost has been the erosion of public confidence and trust.
Something needs to change.
A Call to Action
We are told that the current nonsense, the lies, and misinformation prevalent across our media platforms is caused by extremists, conspiracy theorists, or Putin-funded troll farms.
Whether true or fantasy, the responsibility lies squarely at the feet of our government leaders. The heavy-handed overreach of censorship and outrage is inconsistent with who we are. Our leaders need to chill and show confidence in the public’s good sense. The overreach is the real problem.
Unless we begin to have that honest conversation about what we want this new AI world to look like, the androids will decide for us. But as scary as that might sound, it might well be for the best.
