There is dissension in the ranks. Usually Biden friendly publications, Axios and the Financial Times, don’t publish articles citing concerns. Axios headlined an article, on the 20th of October: “behind the curtain, a rattled US government fears war could spread.” It cites anonymous sources suggesting the administration is in over its head.
But we don’t actually need anonymous sources to read the room. The Biden administration is ratcheting up the war drums and there’s precious little to suggest the administration is interested in extracting itself from any conflict. Those running Biden’s foreign policy appear intent on widening conflict in every direction. War-hawk Senators McConnell and Graham have come out labelling China, Russia, Iran and North Korea a new axis of evil.
The Axios article tells us that there are people in the Whitehouse, the National Security apparatus the State Department and across the bureaucracy of government in a panic. People are beginning to understand that the ship of state is sailing directly towards an iceberg, and the captain’s instructions are full steam ahead.
Senators McConnel and Graham are lauding Biden’s new $106 billion war package. $61 billion earmarked for the Ukraine war and $14 billion for Israel. The Ukraine obsession will not go away. The Ukraine project is long held Neo-Con dream. The Neo-Cons are a relatively small group of people who are positioned in the absolute centre of power of this administration, who effectively control the machinery of government. Their objective is not Hamas or Gaza. They are focused on this new axis of evil: Russia, China, and Iran. For them the Israeli crisis is an opportunity to reassert US hegemony.
And what the Axios article is telling us is not everyone is aligned with this agenda. They can read the tea leaves and fear the whole thing spiraling out of control. They can see the Administration is all in, they are concerned of Chinese and Russian counteraction against mass of escalating US military deployments. Russia has already sent Mig 31 Jets with hypersonic missiles into the Black Sea and issued a warning against any attack on their troops in Syria. The Chinese are also deploying warships into the region to counter US presence.
While Blinken, Graham, McConnell are all saber-rattling. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin also chimed in, expressing concern of a widening conflict, and then proceeded to widen it by directly issuing warnings to China, Russia, and not just Hezbollah. There may be a few rumblings in Congress, but there is not enough of them to change course.
A new axis of evil
We are witnessing the self-same rhetoric that led us to the invasion of Iraq, in 2003. They’ve dusted off Bush’s old script and remastered it for 2023. Hamas is the villain, playing the role of Al-Qaeda. Last week’s attack on Israel is a new 9/11. We’ve already got the new axis of evil – so we’re all ready to go – If you’re not with us you’re against us.
But this remake features a bigger enemy. Russia and China are global powers. Even Iran is stronger economically and militarily today than it was back in 2003. George Bush’s axis of evil was hardly any kind of axis at all. The rhetoric in 2003 concerning Iraq and Iran was wildly overstated. Iraq and Iran were hardly allies; they had only concluded a long and bitter war. Iraq was not a powerful country in the way that Russia and China are powerful. You cannot compare the axis of evil George Bush confronted with the might of both China and Russia. Not only is the new axis of evil much more powerful, the USA is not the power it was in 2003.
Sign of hope
There is one sign of hope. Biden like Bush will want and/or need European support. Now, you would expect that the hen-pecked Europeans would be falling over themselves to display their fidelity, but they have an internal problem. More specifically, a Muslim problem. The Bush/Obama war on terror inundated Europe with millions of Muslim refugees. This demographic has a sympathy towards Palestine and as a result there is an unexpected storm of pro-Palestinian protests throughout Europe. Even in the USA, pro-Palestinian sympathy is larger than expected. What is certain, European leaders are going to tread very cautiously supporting any kind of action in the Middle-East. As a result, persuading the US public to go along with any military escalation will be more difficult.
The Presidential election looming! By January, the campaign will begin to fully dominate US media. If your partial to dusting-off old-scripts, there is nothing quite like a new war to distract a populace concerned with a failing economy, nothing like conjuring the spirit of patriotism to bolster unity and hopefully faith in the incumbent.
The neo-con war team behind Biden is feeling the pressure: The failure of project Ukraine, the problems with the US economy, the even greater economic pressures in Europe, the emergence of the Russian/China relationship, the swelling number of countries joining the BRICs all threaten to derail the neo-con hegemonic project. They are running out of time.
There is a real risk Donald Trump may win the Presidency. It feels like the political wind is shifting against them. Look behind the rosy headlines of US economic growth and what you see is a huge budget deficit. The markets are as nervous today as they were back in 2008, just prior to the collapse of Lehman Bother and the advent of the Global Financial Crisis. We see spiking Bond yields adding further pressure on both interest rates and inflation. On the surface, the economy may appear to have gained speed, but year on year, industrial output is falling. The growth is a mirage.
“You say one thing, you then do the opposite” – President Xi
Last week, in the wake of the Hamas attacks, the President visited the Middle East. He talked the talk of restraint. Then he arrives back in Washington and the mask falls. He addresses the American people, and we see why Chinese President Xi said to Biden: “you say one thing, you then do the opposite.” Outside the Western World nobody trusts Biden. The Egyptians will not talk to him, the Jordanians won’t meet with him, nor do the Saudis. Because they know that whatever agreement they might reach with Biden it isn’t going to stick. This is why anonymous sources are expressing their concerns behind closed doors .
